Global shipping is facing a widening gap between political ambition and economic reality, as rising energy demand, geopolitical instability and the lack of alternative fuels at industrial scale push the goal of zero emissions further out of reach.

The warning came during the 10th Capital Link Maritime Leaders Summit, held in Athens on June 1 as part of Posidonia 2026, where leading Greek shipowners described a market increasingly shaped not by traditional supply and demand, but by wars, regional crises, energy disruption and regulatory uncertainty. The summit was listed among Posidonia’s official conference events, taking place at the Athenaeum Intercontinental Athens.

The timing of the discussion gave their comments added weight. Posidonia opened as ship operators were again focused on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes, where recent disruptions have forced companies to reassess risk, routing and costs.

Reuters reported this week that oil product tankers and an LNG carrier had made rare movements through the area, underlining both the strategic importance of the route and the uncertainty still surrounding normal operations.

At the same time, Gulf importers have been testing alternative routes, including through Saudi Arabia’s NEOM port on the Red Sea, although Reuters reported that such workarounds can be far more expensive and remain limited in scale. That point reinforced one of the main messages from the summit: when key maritime routes are disrupted, the impact is not only operational but also deeply economic.

Shipping Minister Vassilis Kikilias set the political tone, saying Greece, as one of the world’s leading maritime powers, should not simply follow decisions taken elsewhere but actively help shape the international framework for the future of the sector.

However, the discussion quickly moved to the pressure building between regulation, energy security and market reality.

Nikolas Tsakos, president and CEO of Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd, described the period from 2019 onwards as a continuous chain of shocks, from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine to the latest developments in the Middle East, which have turned shipping into a “roller coaster”.

At the centre of his remarks was the growing distance between environmental targets and the real energy needs of the global economy. In this context, he suggested, the debate is already shifting away from Net Zero slogans and towards the more immediate question of how the world will secure enough energy.

That concern has become more pressing as global trade adjusts to repeated shocks across major maritime chokepoints. The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has urged vessels operating around Hormuz to carry out thorough risk assessments and rely only on verified information, describing the situation as fast-moving and unpredictable.

Harry Vafias, shipowner, entrepreneur and founder of StealthGas, was even more direct, arguing that the traditional rules of the market have largely broken down. Shipping, he said, is no longer moving according to long-established trends, but under the direct influence of geopolitical developments, making reliable forecasts increasingly difficult.

This view was echoed by Ioannis Coustas, chairman and CEO of Danaos Shipping, who focused on the next phase for global trade. He said the world is moving towards a new multipolar order that will reshape trade flows and, more importantly, the energy map.

Despite the uncertainty, Coustas noted that the current period remains unusual in one respect, as all the main shipping sectors are performing strongly at the same time.

The green transition was another key point of friction, particularly as shipowners are being asked to make long-term investment decisions without full clarity on future fuels, infrastructure or regulation.

The IMO Net-Zero Framework remains central to that uncertainty. The framework is intended to support shipping’s transition towards net zero emissions, but its adoption has been postponed to November 2026, according to the Global Maritime Forum. Although technical work is continuing, the delay has left shipowners, fuel producers and investors waiting for a clearer signal before committing capital at scale.

Industry groups supporting the framework have argued that swift adoption is needed to give green fuel producers the confidence to invest in large-scale projects. Their concern is that without a predictable demand signal, major fuel projects could struggle to reach final investment decisions.

For shipowners, however, the problem is the other side of the same equation. Regulation may be moving ahead, but the fuels, bunkering networks and port infrastructure needed to make the transition workable are still not available at the level required by global shipping.

Polys Hadjioannou, CEO of Safe Bulkers Inc and chairman of its board of directors, said that although the company is investing in methanol-fuelled vessels, shipping does not yet have the fuels or infrastructure needed to support such a shift at scale.

His position reflected a broader concern within the industry that decarbonisation targets are being set faster than the practical systems needed to deliver them. For an industry that moves most of the world’s trade, that gap is no longer theoretical. It affects vessel orders, financing, chartering decisions and long-term fleet planning.

In other words, the issue is not whether shipping should decarbonise, but whether the transition can be delivered without undermining energy security, trade flows and commercial viability.

Ioanna Procopiou, CEO of Sea Traders SA and Prominence Maritime SA, meanwhile, pointed to a more immediate and practical path, saying shipping can still cut emissions significantly by improving energy efficiency.

According to her, the sector could reduce emissions by up to 40 per cent without waiting for new fuels, by using existing technologies and operational practices, while avoiding additional costs.

Her comments offered a more pragmatic route through the debate. While the long-term transition depends on new fuels and infrastructure, shipowners argue that immediate gains can still be made through better vessel performance, digital tools, routing, maintenance, hull optimisation and operational discipline.

The message from Posidonia was clear. Shipping is entering a period where geopolitics, energy security, regulation and the green transition are colliding. Until the industry has access to scalable fuels, functioning infrastructure and a more stable global environment, its course is likely to remain uncertain.