Global recorded-music retail sales are expected to reach $48.3 billion in 2026, marking the 12th consecutive year of annual growth for the industry, according to new forecasts from research firm Omdia.

The latest projections show the global recorded-music market continuing its expansion, with sales expected to surpass the $50 billion milestone in 2027 before reaching $56.8 billion by 2030.

Omdia’s figures include consumer spending on physical and digital music formats and services, as well as trade revenue generated through advertising, performance rights and synchronisation.

The market’s growth will be driven largely by subscription services, including platforms such as Spotify, Apple Music and YouTube Music.

Subscription retail sales are forecast to rise by 7.2 per cent in 2026, increasing to $30.5 billion from $28.4 billion in 2025.

By 2030, subscription revenues are expected to exceed $37 billion, representing a compound annual growth rate of 5.4 per cent over the period.

The industry is also approaching a significant milestone in its longer-term recovery, with Omdia forecasting that by the end of 2028 the number of years this century in which recorded-music retail revenue has increased will exceed the number of years in which it has declined.

Advertising revenue is expected to grow faster than physical music sales over the next five years, with Omdia forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 4.3 per cent for advertising, compared with 3.4 per cent for physical formats.

Despite slower growth, physical music sales are expected to remain the second-largest source of recorded-music revenue globally.

Spending on physical formats is forecast to continue rising over the next five years, although the pace of growth is expected to moderate, reaching annual growth of 1.9 per cent in 2030.

Physical sales are projected to be worth $8.3 billion by 2030.

Combined audio and video advertising revenue is forecast to increase by 5.6 per cent in 2026 to $5.3 billion, before reaching $6.2 billion in 2030.

China is expected to continue climbing the global music market rankings, according to Omdia, after entering the top five in 2022 by overtaking France.

The country is forecast to overtake the UK in 2028 and Japan in 2029, becoming the world’s second-largest recorded-music market.

By 2030, China is expected to account for 8.7 per cent of global recorded-music retail revenue, up from 5.8 per cent in 2025.

The United States will remain the world’s largest recorded-music market, although its share of global sales is forecast to decline from 40.3 per cent in 2025 to 38.4 per cent in 2030.

“Music companies should be encouraged by our latest forecasts, with plenty of reasons for optimism,” Simon Dyson, senior principal analyst at Omdia, said.

“Global retail sales are set for new record highs over the next five years, and the $60 billion milestone is expected to be reached early in the next decade,” he added.

“China becoming the world’s second-largest music market is significant news for the industry,” Dyson continued.

“The country has long been viewed as a major emerging opportunity, and these forecasts show it is now delivering meaningful value to the global music business,” he concluded.