The Middle East conflict could trigger a “slow-burn” increase in vessel operating costs that persists long after the initial shipping disruptions, according to maritime research firm Drewry.

While the industry is currently fixated on immediate spikes in freight rates and war-risk premiums, Drewry warns that sustained high oil prices will eventually filter through to core operating expenses.

Because shipowners typically rely on existing inventories and long-term contracts, the impact is rarely immediate, but it is cumulative.

A wide range of technical equipment depends on oil-based products, with lubricants produced by majors like Shell and BP being the clearest examples of costs likely to rise over time.

Similarly, technical stores such as chemicals, paints, and cleaning products depend on petrochemical feedstock, while the production of engine spares involves energy-intensive industrial processes that are sensitive to fuel prices.

Dry-docking represents one of the largest recurring expenses for shipowners and is closely linked to energy prices through shipyard operations, including steel production and heavy machinery usage.

While vessels typically only undergo these surveys every 2.5 to 5 years, the full financial impact will be felt as the next scheduled dockings come around in a higher-priced environment.

The crisis also presents a geographical risk. Security concerns in the Persian Gulf may force vessels to avoid regional ship-repair facilities.

If traffic shifts toward already busy hubs in Asia or Europe, shipowners face the double burden of higher docking bills and significantly longer waiting times.

Ultimately, while insurance and rerouting are today’s headlines, the long-term viability of vessel margins will depend on how long these geopolitical tensions continue to inflate the global energy market.