Global air cargo demand fell by 4.8 per cent year-on-year in March, reflecting significant disruption across key logistics hubs, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The decline was more pronounced in international operations, where demand dropped by 5.5 per cent compared with March 2025.

At the same time, cargo capacity decreased by 4.7 per cent, with international capacity falling by 6.8 per cent.

“Air cargo demand fell 4.8 per cent in March compared to the previous year,” said IATA director general Willie Walsh.

He attributed the downturn largely to external shocks. “This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East,” he said.

The timing of seasonal trends also played a role in the overall decline.

“The timing of the usual post Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline,” Walsh added.

Despite the contraction, underlying fundamentals remain supportive of future growth. “The underlying demand trends at this point appear strong,” the IATA chief said.

This assessment is reinforced by broader economic indicators. Global industrial production increased by 3.1 per cent year-on-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of expansion.

At the same time, global goods trade rose by 8.0 per cent year-on-year, signalling continued strength in international commerce.

The manufacturing outlook also remained positive. The global Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 51.4 in March, while the index for new export orders reached 50.1, both above the expansion threshold.

However, the industry is facing mounting cost pressures. Jet fuel prices surged by 106.6 per cent year-on-year in March, alongside a 43.1 per cent increase in crude oil prices and a 320 per cent rise in refining margins.

“All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” Walsh said.

Regional performance varied significantly, reflecting the uneven impact of geopolitical developments.

Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 5.4 per cent increase in air cargo demand, supported by a 5.0 per cent rise in capacity.

European carriers saw demand grow by 2.2 per cent, with capacity increasing by 4.2 per cent.

African airlines posted the strongest growth at 7.0 per cent, despite a 4.6 per cent decline in capacity.

In contrast, North American carriers experienced a 1.2 per cent decline in demand, accompanied by a 1.1 per cent reduction in capacity.

The most significant contraction was recorded in the Middle East. Middle Eastern carriers saw demand plunge by 54.3 per cent, while capacity fell by 52.4 per cent.

This marked the weakest performance across all regions and reflects the impact of ongoing conflict on regional airspace and logistics networks.

Elsewhere, Latin American and Caribbean carriers recorded a 1.8 per cent increase in demand, with capacity rising by 5.1 per cent.

Trade flows also showed diverging trends across major corridors. Africa-Asia routes led global growth, followed by Asia-Europe, while intra-Asia trade remained resilient.

By contrast, Gulf-linked trade corridors were severely disrupted, reflecting the broader impact of geopolitical instability on supply chains.

“Air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff and operational strains,” Walsh said.