Global share and bond markets and oil prices steadied on Thursday after the week’s reignition of Middle East hostilities and heavy selling of AI chipmakers.
Oil prices dipped for only the second time in six days after the United States launched fresh overnight strikes on Iran in order, it said, to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping.
Having warned that the interim ceasefire with Tehran was now “over”, US President Donald Trump had also soothed some of the most extreme worries, saying that despite the breakdown, he did not expect a return to a full-fledged war.
Brent crude futures dropped back under $77 a barrel in early London trading following a 9 per cent jump in the last few days that had briefly pushed them above $80 again.
Pressure eased on global borrowing costs too. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields steadied at 4.56 per cent after a 10 basis point rise since Monday, while Germany’s Bund yields dipped 2 basis points to 3.069 per cent in Europe.
In Asia though, Japan’s 10-year yields had hit 2.9 per cent, the highest since 1996, while Australia’s 10-year government bond yields scaled a one-month peak of 4.933 per cent.
HSBC’s Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Max Kettner said the bond markets remained highly sensitive to the Middle East tensions given the potential implications for inflation and global interest rates.
“In reality, the rates market is really following oil prices,” he said. “That has been clear over the last few days.”
TECH VOLATILITY
European shares moved tentatively higher, helped by a rebound in tech and AI stocks after a stumbling couple of weeks for the high-flying sector.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) was up almost half a percent with tech stocks (.SX8P) up 1.3 per cent as chipmaker Siltronic (WAFGn.DE) surged more than 10 per cent.
Global sentiment was also buoyed by a report that China could allow domestic AI firms limited access to AI leader Nvidia’s (NVDA.O) H200 chips and signs that SK Hynix’s $28 billion US listing was more than seven times oversubscribed.
The offering from the South Korean chipmaker, which will finance new factories and equipment to meet surging AI chip demand, is set to be the world’s second-biggest share sale after SpaceX’s SPCX.O record-breaking $85.7 billion IPO last month.
HSBC’s Kettner said the 30-day “realised volatility” on South Korea’s KOSPI index was 75 per cent currently. In comparison, a 7- to 10- year US Treasury exchange-traded fund traditionally has realised volatily of around 3 per cent.
“Imagine if you are an institutional investor. Who can really buy in size an asset class with 75 per cent realised volatility?” Kettner said. HSBC went “underweight” on emerging market stocks this week following the surge in key markets like Korea’s.
MUTED CURRENCY MARKETS
Wall Street futures were 0.2 per cent to 0.6 per cent higher ahead of the resumption of trading there later.
Currency markets were rather muted, meanwhile, with the dollar (.DXY) barely budged, the yen stuck near a 40-year low and the euro , sterling and most other European currencies also little changed on the day. /FRX
Wednesday’s June FOMC minutes, the first under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, had shown some growing concerns about inflation. Markets have increased the implied probability of a Fed hike this year to about 87 per cent, according to CME FedWatch.
Gold edged up 0.8 per cent to $4,109 an ounce as oil prices eased.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said traders were watching how the Middle East tensions develop from here.
“The possibility that the next move could be de-escalatory is what’s currently preventing oil from pushing meaningfully higher,” he said.
Click here to change your cookie preferences