Trump’s ‘America first’ agenda has abandoned the role the US played on the world stage
By Loukis Skaliotis
European countries have recently woken up to the need to boost their defence spending with the defence/GDP ratio being pushed up above 2 per cent for Nato countries as a whole.
The threat from Russia’s likely victory in Ukraine has sharpened minds and the need to increase defence capabilities particularly from countries closer to the conflict such as Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.
But it is concerns from the western front that are raising questions on how far European countries are safe in preserving their way of life and standard of living. I have written on more than a few occasions about the danger Donald Trump’s America is posing to the world liberal democratic order. Yet, his recent bullying tactics towards Greenland, Panama and Canada have surpassed even the most pessimistic scenarios on how his four years in office will unfold.
On Tuesday, answering questions at his residence in Florida, he explicitly refused to rule out the possible use of military force to bring the Panama Canal and Greenland (which is an autonomous region belonging to Denmark) under US control. As for Canada, he has threatened the use of severe tariffs on Canada’s exports to the US, which he says Canada would avoid if it became the 51st state of the USA.
Some people dismiss these outbursts as tactical posturing to secure concessions from his counterparties. Already, this has contributed to the resignation of Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister. Although Trudeau was deeply unpopular in Canada for a set of domestic policies, he was never on good terms with Trump, who will see Trudeau’s departure as payback for his stance on Trump’s first term in office.
Trump’s motivation for “revenge” may be key in shaping his actions. He was never held in high esteem by world leaders during his first presidency. For a man who covets acknowledgment of his purported genius this must have been a bitter pill to swallow. This effective humiliation – the unpleasant feeling that comes from the sense that your social status or self-image has been harmed – as Jemima Kelly put it in the Financial Times on December 29 often leads the person who has been humiliated to seek a type of revenge. A bruised ego can be particularly dangerous, Kelly warns.
Europe’s reliance on Nato (and in effect on the US, given its leading role in that organisation) for its security takes on a whole new perspective with Trump in office. France was forced on Wednesday to warn Trump against threatening EU ‘sovereign borders’, a threat that seemed inconceivable up to now.
Yet, as Trump’s “America first” agenda abandons the role the US played on the world stage, it will be a change that Trump will come to regret. Despite the many complaints people may have had over how America exercised its role through the years, it was nevertheless a beacon for promoting human rights values, open markets and the liberal world order. That role served the US’ own economic interests and secured its position as the leading economy in the world. I have the view that the ‘America first’ agenda, will ironically usher in the decline of American hegemony that Trump is supposedly keen to bring back. As more countries will turn away from an unreliable ally, America will most likely lose access to the markets that made it a world economic powerhouse. Already the Economist has been arguing that Canada should be seeking to join the EU as a way that will benefit both Canada and the European countries.
Trump’s assault on previous allies is not limited to views expressed through official channels. Elon Musk has been assigned the unofficial role of castigating the Labour government in the UK as well as pushing for the far right AfD party in the coming elections in Germany. Although the US has a long history of influencing elections in developing countries, this is the first time it undermines governments in allied rich countries.
This is not an impulsive reaction from a bruised ego, even though the initial motivation may have stemmed from there. It is rather a calculated move to weaken the EU by enticing the UK closer to the US and away from Europe. Back in November, Stephen Moore, a top economics advisor to Trump, was suggesting that the UK had to choose between a trade deal with the US and the “socialist” policies of the EU.
For all the above reasons, Europe needs to rethink its strategy and come together urgently to address the void that a potential lack of commitment by the US will pose to its security not to mention its democratic principles. Standing up to a bully, as is well known, can only be done by a display of strength.
Establishing its own nuclear deterrence must come high in Europe’s list of priorities. Without the US, only the UK and France have a nuclear capability. A common European approach is fundamental. This is the time to initiate issuing a common European debt (which has been long debated but avoided) for funding this objective. One could think of no more apt justification than this. As Edward Luce said in another FT article on January 7, “Europe’s habit has always been to hope for the best. On this occasion it should plan for the worst.”
Loukis Skaliotis is an economist
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