The news that yet another golf course, Limassol Greens, will be opening this summer isn’t shocking in itself, but the timing is unfortunate.

Golf courses are notorious water guzzlers – and the water situation in Cyprus is extremely dire, with this summer in particular looking like a crisis waiting to happen. Dams are currently about 26 per cent full, down from 47 per cent at the same time last year.

The charitable view is that a perfect storm of accidental, one-off misfortunes – compounded by two years of drought – has created a temporary bad situation.

A desalination plant near Kouklia was put out of commission by fire damage, and will hopefully start operating again in August. The reservoir of the Mavrokolympos dam, containing 1.4 million cubic metres of water, had to be completely drained as the only option to repair a leak. A mobile desalination plant in the Peyia area is in the process of accepting tenders, and should be ready by October.

The less charitable view is that not only were these misfortunes avoidable – it remains to be seen if the Mavrokolympos leak was due to poor maintenance – but the problem is ongoing, likely to get worse, and being met with a total lack of strategic thinking or willingness to take hard decisions.

On the one hand, Cyprus has always had a water problem. Water cuts were common in the 80s and 90s. The fact that they’re no longer necessary – though they may well return this summer – is a testament to the success of the system put in place by successive governments.

On the other hand, we’re pushing the limits of what can be done. We already have one of the highest numbers of dams per capita in the world. Desalination plants are an obvious solution (up to 10 more are being planned), but they’re expensive and bad for the environment.

Talk of drought makes it sound like things will get ‘back to normal’ soon, but in fact annual rainfall has always been erratic – plus the long-term trend, driven by climate change, is towards less rainfall and possible desertification anyway. Two below-average rain years are not the reason for our current predicament.

What’s actually changed recently, to create this water shortage and drive the dams down to 26 per cent of capacity? The answer is demand. 

Until about 2015, tourist arrivals to Cyprus hovered at about 2.4 million a year. They then shot up past three million – and now, in 2024, after a hiatus due to Covid, they’ve crossed the four-million barrier for the first time ever.

Four million tourists means four million extra showers for one week apiece, and millions of extra water bottles in the heat of summer – not to mention all the infrastructure required to house them, and a golf course or two to entertain them.

Talk of changing our tourism model is anathema to governments. It’s been the lynchpin of the economy for so many years. But it may be time to wonder if focusing on numbers – constantly trying to push arrivals past the previous year’s milestone – is sustainable anymore.

After all, we don’t seem to have any good solutions when it comes to water. Dams may fill up, but they’ll empty again in the next drought. Desalination plants produce emissions, plus a toxic substance called brine. Public campaigns beseeching people not to waste water seem to fall on deaf ears. Water cuts aren’t really a solution at all.

Rather than keep trying to find more water for ever-increasing uses, maybe it’s better to accept that our resources are finite, set a maximum (or at least optimum) number of visitors, and focus on quality rather than quantity.

Ironically, the only ‘good’ solution is one that’s politically unfeasible. The water crisis only affects the Republic of Cyprus. The north gets water via undersea pipelines from Turkey, and Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar has cheekily offered more than once to ‘share’ this water with the Greek Cypriots.

That’ll never happen, of course – but it does serve to highlight the basic issue, that Cyprus can only do so much on its own. Alas, no-one will magically appear to supply us with water.

Meanwhile, the state offers piecemeal solutions, trying to muddle through these bad few months. “They will have less output and/or quality, but their banana plantations won’t dry up,” said permanent secretary at the agriculture ministry Andreas Gregoriou, speaking of the farmers who previously depended on the Mavrokolympos dam, and will now be getting help to survive.

Water cuts will likely be enough to see us through, till the plant at Kouklia comes back and the new one gets built – but we’re at our limit, and a major re-think is advisable. The way to deal with a problem is to think about solving it before it becomes insoluble. Alas, we in Cyprus tend to plunge ahead and hope for the best.

A moratorium on new golf courses is probably a good idea too.