Polls indicate Akel and Disy will see their share of the vote tumble

By Les Manison

The election to select 56 members to the House of Representatives will take place on May 24 with 19 political parties and 743 candidates participating.

Will voters in Cyprus follow their European counterparts and cause a significant reduction in the parliamentary representation of traditional main political parties, that results in a swing to right-wing parties? Or will the main left-wing party, namely Akel, manage to retain a considerable part of its sizable representation in the House?

Public opinion polls

Recent opinion polls indicate that the two main political parties, namely Akel and Disy, will experience large reductions in their winning of parliamentary seats, with the former party gaining 15 per cent of the total vote and the latter party 15.3 per cent according to the poll by RAI. In addition, the three centrist parties supporting the Christodoulides government are shown to be losing ground as well. And a considerable part of the support for the traditional parties appears to have shifted to the far-right Elam party and to the new Alma and Direct Democracy parties.

But, what is quite prominent in the RAI poll is that the category “undecided voters” represented 26.3 per cent of respondents. Whether these persons that failed to disclose their voting preferences, vote and how could significantly affect the election outcome. Indeed, “undeclared voters are up for grabs”.

And on the question of whether public opinion polls accurately reflect voter intentions, it is noted that polls may not necessarily cover a representative sample of voters. In addition, there may be social stigma for certain respondents in stating they intend to vote for candidates of a certain party. In this respect, research indicates that women more than men have a stigma over their intentions to vote for a far-right-wing political party.

Issues affecting voters

While Cypriot voters generally support EU policies there are clear divisions within the population and political parties on the issue of prioritising increased spending on defence and security as against restraining socially oriented outlays in line with EU initiatives.

And In line with the voters that increasingly support right-wing political parties in Europe, Cypriot citizens view migration as a top issue. Indeed, there is public concern that the inflow of migrants to Cyprus is too high relative to its population size and that the large number of migrants is placing a strain on the country’s public services. Also, public concern is exacerbated by perceptions that connect migrants to increased criminality, insecurity and social problems.

Currently, many Cypriots are concerned about their personal economic situations, characterised by financial strain despite the recording of strong macroeconomic numbers advertised continually by the government. In fact, many households are struggling to cover basic expenses owing to inflationary pressures and unaffordable housing costs. Furthermore, there is concern that the government is doing little to alleviate the mounting financial hardships of lower and lower-middle income households stemming from the impact of the war with Iran.

Cypriots are recording decreasing and low trust in institutions. They see the government as self-serving and just soaking up the reports of the EU, the IMF and credit-rating agencies that applaud the Cyprus authorities for their impressive management of the economy, rather than as an institution that cares about the people with the provision of quality public services and the undertaking of worthwhile investments in essential infrastructure to ensure, among other things, security in energy and water supplies.

The public regards corruption in Cyprus as being exceptionally high, with a large majority perceiving it as widespread and deeply rooted within the state apparatus. In particular, Cypriots believe that the Legal Service fails to prosecute alleged cases of corruption properly.

They see banks as focusing selfishly on high profitability driven by policies reflecting pitifully low deposit rates and exorbitant loan rates and charges, leading in turn to calls for windfall taxes. There are concerns as well that banks “loot” their balance sheets by selling non-performing loans and related collateral (homes) to third-party investment companies, rather than offering better restructuring options.

In sum, with the Cyprus public increasingly distrusting institutions, many are of the view that all political parties are the same, especially in their involvement in and handling of corruption. And with this attitude voter turnout could be negatively affected.

Responses of political parties

As the parliamentary elections draw near there has been little serious debate by the political parties on key issues such as housing, energy, the economy, the environment and geopolitics that affect the quality of lives and the future of the ordinary Cypriots.

Even on the key issue of corruption, recent debate between political parties has been about accusing each other of being immersed in corruption and other malpractices, rather than in outlining their proposals for tackling corruption with details on suggested Legal Service reform, transparency and stronger institutions.

Generally, the centre-right political parties of Disy, Diko, Edek and Dipa in their election campaigns give support to the policies of the Christodoulides government, especially on the economy. In truth, much of the campaign rhetoric of these parties has been directed at criticising Akel, asserting baldly that this party could not be trusted in handling the economy in view of its past role in causing the financial crisis of 2013. And specifically, Disy and Diko add rather loosely that the proposals of Akel regarding government policies would destabilise the economy and deter foreign investments.

Far-right party Elam focuses on the migration issue in its election campaigning calling for the deportation of asylum seekers and the minimisation of social benefits to immigrants. Also, with its fluctuating socially conservative views, especially on LGBT rights, it is difficult to fathom how voters will respond to the Elam campaign.

On the left, Akel, appears to be the only party presenting detailed proposals for improving the economic well-being and creating a fairer society. Akel candidates have focused their platform on addressing the high cost of living, housing affordability, protecting labour rights and strengthening social welfare against the policies of the government, while giving serious consideration in addressing the adverse consequences of the war with Iran on low and middle-income households and small businesses.

Notably, Akel has been at the forefront of proposals to make Cyprus banks accountable by maintaining a strong position against foreclosure processes, proposing amendments to protect struggling primary residences and small businesses, and often criticising other parties as being “bodyguards of the banks”.

And most importantly, it is unfortunate that the political parties have not made voters acutely aware that both the Cyprus banks and the government have hoarded very large amounts of financial resources instead of supporting the local economy more effectively with productive loans and expenditures.

Voter response

There are many questions relating to how voters will exercise their preferences at the ballot box in response to the opinion polls and the campaigning of the various political parties and independent candidates.

With the opinion polls indicating that no political party likely to be a clear winner and certain new political parties expected to gain seats, there is the question of whether there will be any significant gravitation of voters toward candidates of the party that voters themselves think will win. Rather, some persons may prefer voting for the newer parties since they feel that their vote could be meaningful.

On economic policies will many voters be convinced by the government’s narrative and its political backers that the economy is performing and being managed very well and vote for candidates of parties supporting the government? Or are many voters persuaded that Akel can do better and be trusted to handle the economy? Moreover, can Akel gain traction with low and low middle-income voters?

And given that a number of voters express that all the traditional parties are unreliable in delivering on their many promises and are just self-serving, will they vote for newer parties or will they be swayed to vote for traditional parties by their close relations and friends?

Furthermore, will the stigma associated with voting for certain parties – particularly working class or far-right parties – play a significant role. Research has revealed that social stigma can sometimes influence voters to hide their preferences. Undoubtedly, some supporters of stigmatised parties in Cyprus, such as Akel for its alleged role in causing the financial crisis of 2013 and Elam for its strict socially conservative policies, may fear the disclosure of their political identity, indeed, a factor that can lead to preference falsification in voting and lower voter turnout.

Finally, will the diverging positions of the political parties on the Cyprus problem, reflecting varying approaches to reunification, sovereignty and concessions, have an impact on the election results? Will the unambiguous stance of Akel in pressing for the reunification of the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities with equal political rights influence voters, or will the positions of other political parties, that essentially want maintenance of the status quo for the divided island, have some impact on the election outcome?