Turkey’s chance at the end of the Afghan Road?

Dr Yiorghos Leventis

The cascading events in Afghanistan have taken the whole world aback. The extremist Taliban after a two-decade respite, are back in power. The Western intervention in the country is being defeated in a most disgraceful way.

According to the US Department of Defence, the total military expenditure in Afghanistan, from October 2001 until September 2019, had reached $778 billion. At the height of the US military operations in the country, during the three years 2010-2012, Washington was spending more than $100 billion a year to sustain more than 100,000 boots on the ground. By 2018, US annual military expenditure in Afghanistan dropped to less than half to around $45 billion.

The reason for the sharp fall was the shifting of the focus of the American mission from offensive operations to eliminate the terrorist threat to the training of the national Afghan security forces to do this job, something in which both the Americans and their Afghan allies dismally failed, as we have seen in the last few days. To put things into comparative perspective, even the reduced annual figure of $45 billion US military expenditure in Afghanistan equals to nine times(!) the annual Greek military budget or about two times Ankara’s equivalent bill for running the entire Turkish Armed Forces for 2020.

Speaking of Turkey, what has been its role in NATO’s mission in Afghanistan and what the future has in store for Ankara’s involvement as the Taliban consolidate their power in the country? First, we need to note that Turkish troops have not participated in combat operations against the Taliban. The Turkish contingent provided logistical support and training of the Afghan security forces personnel. In this framework, over 12,000 Afghan soldiers and police have been trained.

Overall, whilst formally declaring an end to its combat mission already in December 2014, NATO maintained a 13,000-strong force in the country to help train Afghan forces and support counter-terrorism operations. As it becomes abundantly clear, even to the most naïve of spectators, the Taliban capture of Kabul proves that the Afghan security personnel training operation, which formed the cornerstone of NATO’s operation in the country as of the last seven years, brought zero results.

Apart from Turkish construction firms winning projects in Afghanistan, Ankara was discussing with the Americans assuming the security of Kabul’s airport after their final withdrawal. But they were overtaken by the tide of sweeping events. Turkey’s contingent in Afghanistan numbers six hundred men.

Ankara had offered to keep them in Kabul to guard and operate the airport after other NATO members pulled out their contingents. While discussing details of the transfer of control of Kabul airport with Washington and the government of President Ashraf Ghani, the Taliban overtook the capital. In mid-July, the latter had issued a warning to Ankara against keeping its troops at Kabul airport. As chaos ensued, Turkish officials have stepped back of their offer for Turkey to operate and secure the Afghan capital’s international airport.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Turkish official said earlier this week: “At this stage, the process of Turkish soldiers taking up control of the airport has automatically been dropped”.

He added: “However, in the event that the Taliban ask for technical support, Turkey can provide security and technical support at the airport”, thus leaving the window open for Turkey’s return should that be of the new regime’s liking.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has appealed for calm in Afghanistan. Whilst criticizing the Taliban’s advance, the Turkish president, offered to meet the latter’s leaders in an effort to end the fighting. In the event the increased presence of US troops in Kabul after the Taliban takeover – Biden ordered the immediate dispatch of 7,000 troops to help secure evacuation of US citizens – leads to more fighting, Erdogan stands a good chance to raise himself into the stature of a sought-after mediator. If such a development materializes, the Turkish president will kill two birds with a single stone: on the one hand emerge as a peacekeeper (with the prospect of advancing further into the position of peacemaker) in troubled Afghanistan, and on the other hand, make headway on mending his frayed relations with Washington.

Dr Yiorghos Leventis is Director of International Security Forum: www.inter-security-forum.org