Oil prices fall 1 per cent on uncertainty over global outlook, rate hikes

Oil prices fell more than 1 per cent on Monday as concerns about rising interest rates, the global economy and the outlook for fuel demand outweighed support from the prospect of tighter supplies on OPEC+ supply cuts.

Brent crude slipped 91 cents, or 1.11 per cent, to $80.75 a barrel by 0627 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $76.96 a barrel, also down 91 cents, or 1.17 per cent lower.

Both contracts fell more than 5 per cent last week, their first weekly drop in five, as US implied gasoline demand fell from a year ago, fuelling worries of a recession at the world’s top oil consumer.

Weak US economic data and disappointing corporate earnings from the tech sector sparked growth concerns and risk aversion among investors, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. The stabilising US dollar and climbing bond yields are also adding pressure on commodity markets, she added.

Central banks from the United States to Britain and Europe are all expected to raise interest rates when they meet in the first week of May, seeking to tackle stubbornly high inflation.

China’s bumpy economic recovery from COVID-19 also clouded its oil demand outlook, although Chinese customs data showed on Friday that the world’s top crude importer brought in record volumes in March. China’s imports from top suppliers Russia and Saudi Arabia topped 2 million barrels per day (bpd) each.

Still, refining margins in Asia have weakened on record production from top refiners China and India, curbing the region’s appetite for Middle East supplies loading in June.

Nevertheless, analysts and traders remained bullish about China’s fuel demand recovery towards the second half of 2023 and as additional supply cuts planned by OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers including Russia – from May could tighten markets.

“Planned output cuts by the OPEC+ alliance and a strong demand outlook from China could provide a fillip to prices in the coming days, where Brent is likely to find key support around $79 a barrel, while for WTI crude support is aligned at $75 a barrel,” Sugandha Sachdeva, an independent oil markets expert, said.

In the United States, energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in four weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co (BKR.O) said.