A European Union plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 55 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030 is technically and economically possible, researchers said on Monday.
The European Commission will next month propose a tougher EU climate goal for 2030, to steer the bloc towards its flagship target of net zero emissions by 2050, down from the nearly 4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent it currently emits annually.
The Commission will propose a 50 per cent or a 55 per cent emissions reduction for 2030 – up from an existing 40 per cent goal. It would set the stage for planned EU reforms on tax, energy policy and the carbon market next year.
“Achieving a 55 per cent target is possible,” German-based think tank Agora Energiewende executive director Patrick Graichen told Reuters. “And if it is feasible, why wouldn’t we go for it?”
In analysis published on Monday, Agora Energiewende and the German research centre Oeko Institut lay out how the EU could revamp its climate policies to deliver the goal.
To deliver the 55 per cent target, the researchers said emissions covered by the Emissions Trading System (ETS) should fall to 61 per cent below 2005 levels, a much deeper cut than the 43 per cent reduction the carbon market is designed to deliver by 2030.
That would require reforms to the carbon market, including reducing its cap on emissions by up to 5.4 per cent annually from 2025, compared with the 2.2 per cent reduction rate currently planned.
EU countries, which must approve the new climate target, are divided. Western and Nordic countries back the more ambitious level and eastern nations refuse to consider bigger cuts before seeing an assessment of the costs.
The researchers said there is “no credible pathway” towards a 55 per cent target for 2030 without a bigger contribution from states such as Poland and Czech Republic that say the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic will make climate goals more challenging.
Another option would be an EU-wide system of auctioning emissions permits for sectors not covered by the carbon market, with proceeds channelled to poorer states.