Our View: The two sides have over-complicated the peace process

Maria Angela Holguin, the personal envoy of the UN Secretary-General, wound up her second visit to Cyprus after meeting President Christodoulides on Saturday. During her week-long visit, apart from the two leaders, Holguin met party chiefs, mayors, the chambers of commerce and members of civil society of the two sides. It was a full programme of meetings, and she will be back for more of the same next month.

Before returning in April, she will reportedly visit Brussels and several EU member-states. She had already visited the three guarantor states in between her two visits to Cyprus. Very little is known about her meetings, all the party chiefs saying afterwards that she asked their views about the deadlock and how it could be broken. She gave nothing away about her thinking to any of her interlocutors, preferring to hear their views.

We have seen all this before, many times, over the years. A UN envoy is appointed, arrives for meetings with the leaders, the parties, business representatives and civil society groups before visiting the guarantor powers for meetings with their governments and so forth. It is part of the UN envoy ritual, showing the stakeholders that their opinions matter and taking an interest in what they have to say even if this runs counter to everything the envoy would like to achieve. Then again, the hard-line parties on both sides represent a section of the population which the UN cannot be seen to ignore.

If, as the Turkish Cypriot side claims, Holguin’s mission to try to create the common ground for a new peace process will not last longer than six months, she has already wasted two of these months on courtesy calls, to hear what people think. Surely, she could have been comprehensively briefed about what the different parties and groups think about a new peace process and the form of a settlement by the host of political advisors working for the UN in Cyprus in a couple of days; and if this were not enough, she could have been provided with reports about the situation.

Holguin has also expressed an interest in engaging with civil society groups, as if they hold the key to the breakthrough. The reality is civil society groups have no real clout, mostly operating on the political sidelines without broad appeal or support. What if these groups support a federal settlement with political equality? They are not representative of the wider population and will not swing public opinion.

It is at leadership level that UNSG’s personal envoy should be focusing her attention, forcing the leaders to take responsibility, instead of deluding herself that the public would push them towards a compromise. This will not happen, because the majority of people are conservative and risk-averse, have an easy and comfortable life which could be threatened by a settlement.

If there is to be a breakthrough it must come from above and be sold to people by their respective leaders. On the Turkish Cypriot side it would suffice for President Erdogan to issue the order, assuming he is interested in a federal settlement, but on the Greek Cypriot side President Christodoulides will have to take responsibility in his own hands, aware that he will have a section of the media and parties in his alliance fighting him. This is why he has been non-committal about the peace process, vaguely talking about his desire for the resumption of the talks, while making clear what he would not accept.

So rather than make courtesy calls to the parties and talk to civil society, like her predecessors had done without any tangible benefit, Holguin should be looking for a formula that will persuade the two leaders not just to return to the negotiating table, but to have a plan for reaching a deal once they sit at the table. Ersin Tatar’s demand for sovereign equality must be addressed in a way that would be acceptable to Christodoulides (there have been suggestions which have not been pursued) and timeframe set for talks that will tackle the few remaining issues the sides had not agreed on. If this cannot be done in the next couple of months, Holguin may as well give up.

The two sides, with the support of the UN, have been over-complicating the peace process for far too long. Holguin has the opportunity to put an end to this charade once and for all.