By Costas Apostolides
IT APPEARS the UN and the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders are planning to begin serious negotiations to resolve the most difficult of problem in the negotiations, that of territorial adjustment. Why is it so difficult? Because it requires the resettlement of over 100,000 people from both communities. If there is no agreement on this, there cannot be agreement on a Cyprus settlement.
But even if somehow a political agreement is reached, the public have to be persuaded that it will improve the lives of the great majority affected. If a detailed plan for dealing with the implications of territorial adjustment is not in place, then in both communities there is a probability of a “no” vote in the planned referenda.
Essentially the Cyprus talks, by leaving the discussion of territorial adjustment towards the end of the negotiations, have “put the cart before the horse”. For it is impossible to resolve the issue of property ownership, displacement of people, and post-settlement development, without first agreeing on territorial adjustment.
Furthermore, the resettlement of the people affected of both communities must have the second highest priority, second only to the constitution, in the implementation of a Cyprus solution. It is also crucial to the economics of a settlement and closely linked with the timetable for removal of the Turkish army.
For some time now I have been arguing that Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci cannot move from his present positions on the issue (excluding Morphou, minimal adjustments, straight line boundary etc) without having a plan for resettlement of the displaced population complete with details, timetable and funding. Even then it would take great political courage for him to take such a decision.
The Greek Cypriot position, which itself is considered moderate is that territorial adjustment should result in at least 50 per cent of Greek Cypriot displaced persons being able to return home under Greek Cypriot administration and 50 per cent of the coastline to be within the southern province. This would enable about 80,000 displaced (1973 population over 100,000 today) to return to their towns and villages, and resolve the property problem for that number.
The Turkish Cypriot side wishes to minimise the effect of the territorial adjustment on the community so that the changes faced by Turkish Cypriots are manageable, and so that the community votes for a solution in the referendum. At the same time, the leadership in the north wants a Turkish Cypriot majority in northern-administered province. This implies that territorial adjustment should be kept to a minimum, but there are demographic advantages for the Turkish Cypriots in that it would facilitate a majority in their constituent state.
Which community benefits from territorial adjustment depends on the time frame one uses. In comparison with the pre-1974 situation the big winners are the Turkish Cypriots by far. This is because the northern part of the island would be legally under their administration and to a substantial extent, owned. They would control the northern, most richly-endowed part of the island. Prior to 1974 the northern areas were the most developed, the coastline and beaches are more attractive, the landscape is exceptional and the cultural heritage is more impressive such as Salamis, castles, Kyrenia, the Pentadactylos range, Bellapais and Medieval Famagusta.
In relation to the present situation the Greek Cypriots gain much more, but they are the losers in relation to 1974. But they can only recover part of what they have lost in a settlement. It is estimated that under the Annan plan about half Greek Cypriot displaced would have returned home, including to Morphou. Though the Annan plan met that objective with only 7 per cent of the area of the island returning to Greek Cypriot administration, the area proposed for territorial adjustment was in terms of value worth over 50 per cent the value of the land north of the Green Line. I have estimated that the value of the 2004 proposed adjustment for Greek Cypriot displaced persons is at today’s prices around €25 billion.
I therefore strongly believe that a detailed plan for dealing with the problems created by territorial adjustment should be prepared as a matter of urgency, and the cost calculated and planned. In 2003 and 2004 the most detailed plan was prepared by the Turkish Cypriot side under the title “The Cost of resettling the Turkish Cypriots in a Solution based on the Annan Plan”, prepared by a team from the Near East University and the East Mediterranean University under Prof. Tahir Celik. They planned for the resettlement of 50,000 owing to territorial adjustment and others affected by property arrangements in three new cities to be established, covering housing, utility, social services and occupational requirements. The estimated cost was over $2 billion.
The Planning Bureau made calculations of the cost in a less comprehensive study in 2004 covering the cost for both communities, but these are now highly controversial.
The basic message is that if we want a solution we should do our homework, and draw up a plan for how to deal with the great changes that a solution will bring, in a manner that improves the lives of those affected by the changes.
Costas Apostolides is an economist lecturer at the University of Malta, and co-founder of Pax Cypria Cyprus Institute for Peace.
12 Comments
Marcus
October 23, 2016 at 12:42There can never be a solution because the TC are greedy and want it all their way. In reality they are not entitled to any more than they had before 1974 and in the case of the illegal settles they are entitled to nothing whatsoever.
The sooner that the GC wake up to the facts and the Tc get over it the better. At the end of the day nothing is going to happen because big momma Turkey is not going to allow anything to happen and naturally Britain and America are going to side with Turkey.
The sooner the GC wake up to the fact that things are not going to change and start building a Berlin Wall along the Green Line the better.
Slomi
October 23, 2016 at 12:51Any examples that TCs are greedy and GCs are not?
I expect a sane response.
Marcus
October 23, 2016 at 14:01If you haven’t worked out that 18% of the population want a 50% say and the power of veto in the administration of the Country you don’t deserve a response. But as you and I have been chatting for some time I will give you the respect. When I went to school 18% did not equal 72%.
Further more there is the matter of 42 years of compensation for using stolen property.
I find it rather galling that the TC have the audacity to be sitting at a so called negotiating table making demands of the people who have lost the most.
As far as I am concerned let the TC have their ill gotten gains. They will never be any good. They will be a liability to the ROC as they will like typical blackmailers, coming back for more and more. There will never be an end to it especially as they will continue to adhere to the instructions from Turkey.
The TC are puppets, they have been for generations and nothing is going to change. The ROC is better off letting the TC disappear in the arms of their beloved momma Turkey.
Furthermore there is the problem of the Anatolian Turks. It is not in the interest of the ROC to allow any of the illegal settlers to remain in a position to be able to influence the decision making process of the ROC which they will on the instructions of Ankara.
The Anatolians like the inhabitants of the North are like a cancer and the sooner that the ROC cuts them out the better. If the ROC doesn’t cut them out the cancer will eventually spread and take over the ROC.
I am not trying to be nasty or personal but that is the way that I see the situation and believe me I have been watching it long before the 1974 invasion.
The TC were told by the colonial British and Turkey prior to 1960 that they were such a special people that their 18% was worth as much as the GC’s 72% and unfortunately they have continued to believe it.
As long as that attitude prevails there is no place for them in the ROC and for that matter if there are any TC in the ROC who think that way well the sooner that they move camp to the North the better.
To me it is quite obvious that the TC are going to continue to do as they are told by Ankara and that is to play for high stakes so why bother talking to them.
In addition do you really believe for one moment that Turkey has any intention to get out of Northern Cyprus. Hardly.
Erdogon is busy changing the constitution to ensure that he has absolute power and when he succeeds you will see the tightening of the screws in Turkey and even in Northern Cyprus. The TC will regret being part of Erdogon’s grand plan as they feel the pain.
Ten minutes ago a police officer was killed and 10 people were wounded when a car bomb exploded near a passing police vehicle in the eastern Turkish province of Bingol on Sunday, security sources said.
Erdogon has succeeded in provoking Turkey’s neighbours. Here is the comment from the leader of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) who has harshly criticized President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent remarks deriding the 1923 Lausanne Treaty, which was the cornerstone of the modern Turkish republic, saying that “no one has the right to betray his/her history.”
Kılıçdaroğlu’s remarks came as he answered press questions after a meeting in Istanbul with foreign press representatives.
The CHP leader also questioned why this issue was being brought up while there was “this much unemployment, corruption and people chasing after their lives, and in all 81 provinces of Turkey and all its districts victims are looking for an exit.”
Do you really think for one moment that Erdogon has any intention of surrendering as much as an inch of territory that is presently under his control, Northern Cyprus included.
In fact he is busy trying to extend his borders in Syria and Iraq and anywhere else he thinks that he is going to succeed.
In closure, from the point of view of the ROC to allow the North to be integrated with the South on the terms and conditions as demanded by the TC will be at an unbearable cost to the GC and must be avoided.
The TC have made their nest and now they must sit in it and do as momma Turkey demands. The TC will have to play the game according to Turkey’s rules and be prepared to suffer the consequences.
Slomi
October 23, 2016 at 19:22Secular governance has NO concept of majority and minority.Each and every citizen has equal rights.
Marcus
October 23, 2016 at 19:55That is right go and remind the TC of that fact. They don’t seem to understand the principle. They seem to believe that they are entitled to special rights with an entitlement to implement a legislative programme that can be totally to the contrary of the rest of the island.
Well it can’t happen. If each and every citizen is to have equal rights then they must be the same in the North and the South.
Sadly for some reason the TC seem to think that it is right for them to restrict the GC in the North will at the same time they can come and go as they please in the South.
If the GC are going to be restricted in the North well I say make the restrictions permanent with a Berlin Wall along the Green Line and while at it start deporting Southern TCs to the North.
If in 1974 some 200,000 GC came from the North to the South and only 60,000 TC from the South went North then it is only proper to send another 140,000 TC North.
The books have got to be balanced. The Turks seem to think that they can have the cake and eat it as well.
Slomi
October 23, 2016 at 20:09what was this thirteen points?
Marcus
October 23, 2016 at 20:13What do you mean by the 13 points?
Slomi
October 23, 2016 at 20:1813 points by Makarios.
Martin Standage
October 24, 2016 at 19:15Pink Floyd live in Berlin…’tear down the wall!”
Martin Standage
October 24, 2016 at 19:12you have a wall in your brain!Time yougot help about it!
Marcus
October 24, 2016 at 19:35I don’t need help because I am a realist. I am not like others who are appeasers. I am not in the habit of rewarding the aggressors.
It is the goody two shoes that need the help. Anybody who cannot see that after 42 years Turkey has no intention of getting out and there is a need to bring the matter to a conclusion even if it means sealing the Green Line is an apologist and we all know what happened when Adolph Hitler received apologies. It only strengthened him.
If Hitler had been quarantined as far back as in 1933 and the destruction and carnage that he unleashed may have been averted. So maybe you are an apologist for Erdogon.
With a name like Martin Standage I can only surmise that you are of British stock and you are trying to defend the treacherous British who after all were the prime movers of the woes that beset Cyprus today.
Slomi
October 23, 2016 at 10:08A wait and see game still.