Top U.S. general plays down probability of near-term Ukraine military victory

The top U.S. general on Wednesday said Ukraine’s chances of any near-term, outright military victory were not high, cautioning that Russia still had significant combat power inside Ukraine despite suffering battlefield setbacks since its invasion in February.

Ukraine has vowed to keep the pressure on Russian forces until it reclaims control of all occupied territory. Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces recaptured the strategic southern city of Kherson – stoking optimism about Kyiv’s broader military prospects heading into winter.

Still, U.S. Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, urged caution.

“The probability of a Ukrainian military victory – defined as kicking the Russians out of all of Ukraine to include what they claim as Crimea – the probability of that happening anytime soon is not high, militarily,” Milley told a news conference at the Pentagon.

“Politically, there may be a political solution where, politically, the Russians withdraw. That’s possible,” he added, saying Russia “right now is on its back.”

Milley added that the United States would support Ukraine in defending itself for as long as it takes, comments echoed by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the same event.

Milley and Austin addressed reporters after a virtual meeting between dozens of defense ministers supporting Ukraine’s military with billions of dollars in military hardware as well as training, advising and intelligence support.

“Ukraine will continue to endure. Ukraine is not going to back down,” Milley said, adding that Ukraine was free, “and they want to remain free.”

Milley acknowledged unsuccessful attempts to reach his Russian counterpart after a deadly missile strike in Poland on Tuesday raised concerns about spillover of the war into NATO territory.

Ukraine is not a member of the trans-Altantic defense alliance but aspires to join.

NATO leaders said on Wednesday that the missile that hit Poland was probably a stray fired by Ukraine’s air defenses and not a Russian strike.