Will Christodoulides burn out before the finish line?

The maverick Disy man is set to go through to the runoff, but when the race heats up can he please everyone?

By Elias Hazou

Going by the latest batch of opinion polls released this week, ‘independent’ candidate Nicos Christodoulides retains an apparently unassailable lead, what with just over three months left to the presidential elections. Some analysts say the former foreign minister’s progression to the runoff is a foregone conclusion, while others retort that ‘it ain’t over until the fat lady sings’.

On Thursday two surveys were published, one commissioned by state broadcaster CyBC, the other by the Alpha television channel. Both gave ‘dark horse’ Christodoulides a wide margin. In CyBC’s poll he’d get 30.5 per cent of the vote in the first round, with Disy’s Averof Neophytou and Akel’s Andreas Mavrotyiannis trailing way behind at 19 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively.

Alpha’s gallup gave Christodoulides even higher – 35 per cent. Neophytou and Mavroyiannis followed with 14.8 per cent and 14.4 per cent, respectively.

In both polls, Christodoulides likewise came out on top – again with a huge gap – in the second round, against either of his main rivals.

Pambos Papageorgiou, philosophy professor at the European University Cyprus, says one can’t dismiss these results. But – and here comes the caveat – it’s still too early to call it.

“No doubt Christodoulides holds an impressive lead, partly explained by the fact he began electioneering – even if covertly – long before the others did. But a closer look shows his advantage has declined slightly compared to previous polls. Yes, he is preferred by the majority, but if you plot the numbers on a graph his support is falling over time.”

According to the analyst, Cypriots tend to get energised just weeks before a general election, so the polls published thus far may merely be capturing a latent sentiment.

So Christodoulides got off to a flying start – but he will burn out before the finish line, to use a sports analogy?

The million-dollar question seems to be: can Christodoulides’ rivals catch up and overtake, or is it too late?

Says Papageorgiou: “Back in the 2018 race, and around the same timeframe before the vote, Akel candidate Stavros Malas polled at about 15 per cent – but ended up getting 30 per cent on election day. So you can see how polls, a snapshot in time, don’t tell the whole story.”

The commentator adds: “In two months’ time we’ll have a far clearer picture.”

Papageorgiou, who in 2011 got elected to parliament on the Akel ticket, believes that if Disy and Akel each manage to consolidate party discipline at 80 per cent, their candidates would give Christodoulides a run for his money in the first round.

“It’s simple mathematics on a spreadsheet,” he remarks.

Regardless, for the moment it looks like Christodoulides’ strategy has paid off. His non-confrontational demeanour, and playing the victim card whenever attacked, seems to be doing the trick.

And as a former aide to Christodoulides told the Cyprus Mail earlier: “Nothing sticks…the more arrows they sling his way, the tighter his supporters circle the wagons.”

Barring a major blunder – or else an ‘October surprise’ as they call it in the United States – the former foreign minister who went ‘rogue’ on his party Disy is holding fast.

“In a sense, it’s the line he must follow…candidates of the so-called centre spectrum of politics don’t do well whenever they adopt a confrontational stance,” notes Papageorgiou.

But another analyst has a considerably different take on the polls coming out.

“Never say never and all that, but Christodoulides not making it to the runoff is virtually impossible as things stand,” says political commentator Christoforos Christoforou.

He cites the trend shown by the numbers, giving Christodoulides a solid lead despite some minor blips.

“And this trend has registered over a period of months, so it must mean something.”

Moreover – and this is crucial – the slight dip in Christodoulides’ numbers doesn’t appear to translate into corresponding gains for the two other main contenders.

It has to be said, though, that in the poll commissioned by Alpha, Neophytou got a bump of around 1 per cent compared to September, and Mavroyiannis gained three percentage points. But simultaneously, Christodoulides also went up by 1 per cent.

To Christoforou, the key in these elections lies not so much in Christodoulides’ prowess, but rather in the weakness of the other candidates.

For instance, the CyBC survey confirmed that Disy’s Neophytou has the most unfavourable views among the general population – 48 per cent. Worse, only about half of the Disy-affiliated respondents said they’d vote for the party man in the first round.

Mavroyiannis meantime isn’t faring too well either. Were he to secure 100 per cent of the Akel votes, as they manifested in the 2021 legislative elections, that would still garner just 22 per cent overall.

As for Disy, if – and it’s a big assumption – the party faithful somehow miraculously closed ranks around Neophytou, that would translate into just 28 per cent – again going by the last parliamentary elections.

Still, applying the same metrics, the three parties backing Christodoulides (Diko, Edek and Dipa) would secure a combined 24 per cent of the popular vote – falling behind Disy.

Christoforou concedes this, and is quick to qualify that vastly different dynamics govern legislative and presidential ballots – the results from one cannot be automatically transcribed onto the other.

He mentions the 2018 presidential election, when Akel’s Malas received 26,000 votes more than what the party got in the 2016 parliamentary vote.

But the problem for Mavroyiannis and Neophytou – especially the latter – is whether they can break through to voters unaffiliated with Akel or Disy.

Essentially, for the analyst, it boils down to this: Christodoulides will almost definitely go through to the runoff. The only question being, who will join him?

Asked whether Christodoulides – whom detractors pan as an ’empty vessel’ – can coast to victory despite lacking a coherent vision, Christoforou says yes.

“Once again, it is precisely the deficiencies of the other candidates that propel Christodoulides.”

On this, Papageorgiou diverges. In his view, Christodoulides is treading on thin ice – trying to please everyone at the same time, taking vapid and uncontroversial positions on a series of issues.

“But can he maintain this as the race heats up? We shall see.”