Best investments for 2021 — Pundits

It is rare for most investment pundits to agree about anything, but, at this point in time, there is a remarkable consensus: ‘Things are looking up.’

It is hard to believe this as we sit here in lockdown, but the pundits place great faith in the power of vaccines to finally allow us to emerge from the pandemic crisis.

One of the sectors least expected to grow is that of the commodity gas, but energy pundits at Platts say that it’s a comer for the coming year.

S&P Global Platts Analytics expects global LNG demand to grow by 2 per cent in 2020 to around 362 million mt, despite the pandemic, and by another 3 per c ent in 2021. This is, however, slower than the 11 per cent market growth in 2019 and double digit percentage growth of previous years, but growth will continue as China-led Asian demand growth offsets a decline in Europe.

Global liquefaction capacity will grow by 14.5 million mt in 2021, Platts says, compared with the export capacity growth of 27.8 million mt in 2020, with the commissioning of Corpus Christi Train 3 in the US, the restart of Egypt’s Damietta Train 1, Shell’s Prelude FLNG and Petronas’ second FLNG.

“In 2020, the Asian LNG market emerged from a mild winter with an overhang of gas inventories, but for 2021 North Asia is already reeling from multiple cold waves and gas shortages that will leave the market much tighter,” Platts notes.

What about oil? Pundits again say it’s all about the vaccines. “The demand for oil is dominated by the consequences of the fight against Covid-19. The sooner a working vaccine can lead to a relaxation of lockdowns, the sooner the demand for oil will recover,” say the industry analysts at ABN-Amro.

Moving to the bond market, the pundits are cautiously bullish, based on the vaccine effect. Pundits at ThinkAdvisor note that long-term rates have been rising almost steadily higher since Pfizer first announced on on November 9 that its Covid-19 vaccine was 90 per cent effective.

“The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 0.92 per cent as of December 25, and US bond strategists expect even higher rates by year-end 2021, at or slightly above 1.5 per cent if the recovery gathers steam.

“It will be a big move if we get to 1.6 per cent,” but not much of a surprise if the economy is growing and inflation is rising,” agrees Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Most economists expect growth will pick up in the second half of the year but not return to pre-pandemic levels for at least a year.”

The pundits at Capital Group  recommend that investors be selective in their bond choices.

“Know what you’re buying.” cautioned John Queen, a fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. Referring to the corporate, mortgage-backed and municipal bond market, he said, “There are still opportunities, but they need to be assessed security by security, issuer by issuer and active management will play an important role.”

Finally, when it comes to stocks, the pundits are putting their money where their mouths are; the stock markets are flying high in Asia, Europe and the US.

JPMorgan predicts it expected the S&P 500 index to hit 4,000 points by early 2021 and said, in a note to clients that vaccines are “one of the best backdrops for sustained gains in years.”

The bank said it expected the U.S. equity index to keep rising, and to hit about 4,500 by the end of 2021, up 25 per cent from current levels – at this writing the index is at 3,732.04 (up 5 per cent from Wednesday).

It’s not surprising that pundits say the medical devices and services sector is set for continued high growth.

The Motley Fool recommends companies like telemedicine giant Teladoc Health (NYSE:TDOC), which saw virtual visits more than triple from the prior-year period in each of the past two quarters. “Teladoc fully understands that virtual visits are more convenient for patients and physicians. They’re also usually cheaper for health insurers than office visits. With the addition of fast-growing applied health signals company Livongo Health, Teladoc is on the leading edge of treatment personalisation,” the pundit comments.

Meanwhile, Big Tech continues to rally: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla and Facebook are all racking up gains, despite the threat of regulators intervening in their business.

Pundit Richard Waters, writing in the Financial Times, says that investors will expect continuing growth from these stocks, and that they “won’t be able to resist” putting more cash into them.