Whatever he announces will change the face of future talks, analysts predict
By Elias Hazou
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s upcoming visit to the north of Cyprus next week has got the rumour mill churning in the Greek Cypriot space, with pundits anticipating some sort of announcement on Varosha. That some move there will take place, is almost a given – but whatever it is, even minor, it will almost certainly drive the Cyprus issue further into the mire.
Trying to second-guess what tidings will accompany Erdogan’s sojourn in the north would be akin to reading the tea leaves. But putting the visit within context, and the developments unfolding over the past couple of years, one can chance some plausible speculation.
“To be honest, Erdogan has proven to be unpredictable and guessing his next moves is no easy task. Whatever he announces will be in tandem with Turkey’s ‘new’ strategic goal towards two separate states,” said Yiannos Katsourides, assistant professor of political science at the University of Nicosia.
“I say ‘new’ in quotations because we all know this is nothing new but is now officially declared and pursued. Rumours regarding his possible announcements include many things, but they all converge on one thing: one way or another, Varosha will be economically and politically exploited by Turkey as part of this new strategy.”
On whether Erdogan and Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar will reveal a big or small move on Varosha, Katsourides shifts the question:
“The big move has already been announced, and that is the two-states solution. The handling of Varosha is part of this new strategy and if officially announced it will pose insurmountable problems to future efforts for finding a federal solution to the Cyprus problem.
“Erdogan will probably be careful enough not to bring the entire international community directly against him by announcing something too provocative; but I expect announcements in the direction of consolidating Turkey’s new position regarding the two states. A de-characterisation of the military character of the area (or at least part of the closed town) will probably be accompanied by the intention to reconstruct part of Varosha which they deem more viable.”
This reading gels with the ‘small steps’ or ‘salami tactics’ described by other commentators.
Katsourides said it was also in line with many analyses that highlight Erdogan’s relationship and dependence on certain major economic interests in Turkey. Some of these economic interests are represented by Turkish developers who are very close to his administration and are pushing for the opening of Varosha where they see a lot of potential economic benefits.
“It will be also highlighted as a move that will strengthen the economy of the so called ‘TRNC’ via investment in the tourism industry – something that aims to appeal to the Turkish Cypriots as well. A call to Greek Cypriot property owners to apply in the Immovable Property Commission is also expected to form part of this planning as a means to alleviate pressure from the international community,” he added.
Essentially, it is the carrot-and-stick approach.
Meantime all this comes against a backdrop of deflating developments for the Greek Cypriot cause. In the latest report renewing the mandate of Unficyp, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ reference to Varosha appeared, at best, lukewarm.
“Developments in Varosha are perhaps the most illustrative of such challenges in the absence of a political settlement. I reiterate my concern over developments in the fenced-off area of the town and recall that the position of the United Nations remains unchanged,” said Guterres.
It prompted ambassador Andreas Hadjichrysanthou, Cyprus’ permanent representative to the UN to complain that Guterres’ remarks did not reflect the gravity of Turkish provocations.
Hadjichrysanthou went on to state that the Cyprus government was “closely monitoring” developments and has made plans to handle Turkish actions, including resorting to the Security Council.
UN Security Council resolution 550 (1984) considers any attempts to settle any part of Varosha by people other than its inhabitants as inadmissible and calls for the transfer of this area to the administration of the UN. UN Security Council resolution 789 (1992) also urges that with a view to the implementation of resolution 550 (1984), the area at present under the control of the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus be extended to include Varosha.
On October 8, 2020, the Turkish side opened part of the fenced area of Varosha, following an announcement made in Ankara on October 6. Both the UN secretary-general and the EU expressed concern, while the UN Security Council called for the reversal of this course of action.
Those with connections in the north have heard whispers that the area within Varosha to be opened up for development might be Ayios Nicolaos – the town’s old industrial core, near the seafront, featuring some of the most lucrative real estate.
And just this week it came out that Ankara approved a US$500 million line of credit to the north.
Turkish media reported that the loan “will be used in the restructuring of the public and financial sectors in the TRNC, as well as other fields included within the scope of the deal”.
Back in March, Turkey and the north signed an ‘investment-oriented’ agreement for financial cooperation.
According to Daily Sabah, the deal covers “investments in important infrastructures, including the health system, main road projects and the establishment of a new industrial zone in the north, for which Turkey will provide support”.
It was unclear whether part of this cash might get channeled to reconstruction and building in Varosha.
“Again, one can only speculate on the specifics of the loan. But either way, there’s no doubting that financial interests stand to gain a great deal,” offered Hubert Faustmann, professor of history and political science at the University of Nicosia.
On Erdogan’s visit to the north, Faustmann said it would be “almost an anticlimax” were the Turkish side not to unveil some manoeuvre on Varosha.
“I think the minimum we can expect from Erdogan, is that he’ll sell it as a humanitarian move – calling on Greek Cypriot refugees to return to their properties there. Sugarcoating it in some way, to keep the international community off his back,” he said.
“It’s a nice gesture geared at domestic consumption inside Turkey, while ‘sticking it’ to the Greek Cypriots. In any case, Turkey will continue testing the waters – watching the Greek Cypriot response, and international public opinion, and take it from there.”
And in the event Erdogan takes a ‘bold’ step?
“The opening of Varosha does not spell the end of the Cyprus problem. You’ve still got the dispute over offshore hydrocarbons, Unficyp, the non-recognition of the north, and so on.
“Within the chronic headache the Cyprus issue has become for the international community, opening up Varosha is a migraine.”
But, the analyst hastens to add, it would freeze reunification talks for years to come. And whenever the talks do resume, they’d be based on new facts on the ground.
