Holidays abroad this summer unlikely for most Britons, scientist warns (Updated)

Holidays abroad are “extremely unlikely” for most Britons this summer due to the risk of importing new variants of Covid-19, a scientist who advises the government said on Saturday, leaving airlines and travel companies bracing for a second lost peak season.

The news will be an added blow for Cyprus, which was depending on an influx of Brits to re-start the tourism industry. Cyprus was gearing up to receive tourists, either vaccinated or with a negative test, from April 1 from key markets such as Britain, Israel, Russia and Ukraine even though there was no hope of seeing any British holidaymakers before May 17.

Britain has banned travel for most people during the current lockdown and has said overseas holidays will not be allowed before that at the earliest.

However, now, Mike Tildesley, a scientist on a government advisory body, said the risk of importing vaccine-resistant variants back into the UK would likely scupper the nation’s annual getaway.

“I think international travel this summer is, for the average holidaymaker, sadly I think, extremely unlikely,” Tildesley, a professor of infectious disease modelling at the University of Warwick, told BBC Radio on Saturday.

His warning is a further setback for the travel industry’s recovery prospects during the peak vacation season.

Airlines and holiday companies such as British Airways (part of International Consolidated Airlines), easyJet and TUI are desperate for travel to resume after a year of Covid-19 restrictions which has left them struggling financially.

Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group which reports into the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said travel overseas and the variants that could be imported could undermine Britain’s vaccine programme.

“I think we are running a real risk if we do start to have lots of people going overseas in July, for instance, and August, because of the potential for bringing more of these new variants back into the country,” Tildesley said.

Britain has already given half of its adult population a first vaccination, putting it far ahead of the rest of Europe, but existing vaccines are thought to be not as effective against some variants now surging in parts of Europe.

Prof Andrew Hayward, from Sage, told the BBC on Saturday it was “unlikely” the government would want to encourage travel to European countries currently experiencing high levels of coronavirus infections.

“I think it’s unlikely that we would want to encourage travel to those countries whilst they have high levels of infection,” he told Times Radio.

“I suppose one of the more worrying things about this resurgence is that in some parts of Europe the South African variant is beginning to creep up to higher levels.”

He said this variant was of “particular concern” because vaccine effectiveness against it was “quite low”.

First signs that Brits might not be travelling as much as expected came earlier this month when UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he thought it was still too early for people to book a foreign summer holiday.

According to the BBC, Shapps said there were “lots of questions” to answer about “how safe it will be in June to travel”.  Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Wednesday if it was too early to book a summer holiday, Shapps said: “Yes.”

He added: “We have said it will remain illegal to travel internationally until at least 17 May – that’s an at-the-earliest date.”

Shapps said people should look towards April 12, when he would publish a global travel taskforce report, and said the government was weighing up not only the “extraordinary” UK vaccination rollout but also other countries’ vaccine programmes.

“So there are lots of questions the answer to which we simply don’t know yet about how safe it will be in June to travel around,” he told the BBC.